PFrance has long been an exception among developed countries, remaining aloof from the global movement of declining birth rates. The 2023 demographic assessment, prepared by INSEE on Tuesday, January 16, tends to show that the country is on the right track. For the first time since the end of World War II Fewer than 700,000 births were registereda decrease of 20% compared to 2010. The number of newborns per 1,000 inhabitants has halved compared to 1950. The birth rate fell to 1.68 children per woman of childbearing age, moving slightly further away from the generational renewal threshold of 2.1.

The list of reasons that lead people to forego children has grown, and each of them plays a role that is difficult to quantify. The succession of shocks (economic, health, geopolitical) has created a climate of uncertainty that is not conducive to having children. The questioning of the universality of help, the inadequate availability of childcare, the housing crisis that particularly affects young households, personal decisions, fear of climate catastrophe: the factors are diverse and can sometimes add up.

At this point, the vast majority of demographers refuse to conclude that France has entered a “demographic winter.” We can try to reassure ourselves by saying that France remains the leader in fertility in Europe, that birth rates have experienced periods of weakness in the past before rising again, and that the situation in Italy or Spain otherwise is worrying.

All of this is true, but it is difficult to ignore the underlying trend: the decline in birth rates now affects all age groups of reproductive women. The fact that we are having children later and later is no longer sufficient as the sole explanation. The evil lies deeper and we must worry about it immediately because the consequences will be serious. Our ability to overcome them will depend on their anticipation.

Accelerated aging

During his press conference on Tuesday, January 16, Emmanuel Macron promised a “demographic rearmament” by recalling in particular the creation of one “birth leave” Both parents were proposed parental leave that would be shorter but better paid than current parental leave, as well as a plan to combat infertility. Whatever the modalities of these devices, we should not expect miracles. Family policies can influence trends but rarely reverse them. The decision to have a child remains to a large extent a personal matter and the result of an individual decision.

The year-on-year decline in the birth rate is accelerating France’s aging. The decline in births combined with increasing life expectancy poses an immense challenge for the financing of our social protection system, which is largely based on dynamic demographics.

With social security accounts already in the red and the number of active workers compared to retirees steadily declining, the status quo will be unsustainable. Without a balanced approach to immigration and a fair review of all contributions, the sustainability of the system is at risk. The impossibility of an informed debate about this is worrying.