DYears The great escapeIn the book published ten years ago (translated by PUF in 2016), I told how human life has improved over the past two hundred and fifty years, especially in terms of longevity and material living standards. But the last decade hasn’t been kind to my optimism-filled narrative. I may have been right in 2013, but that’s probably not the case today, even for the average person. We don’t know if this regression will be temporary or if it will just get worse in the future.
If the long-term progress trends are clear, History offers nothing to encourage blind optimism. Advances in human well-being are regularly accompanied by setbacks, some of which have resulted in unimaginable harm. Alone during the XXe In the 19th century, catastrophic political games on a national or international level caused tens of millions of deaths, including two world wars, the Shoah and the murderous plans decided upon by Stalin and Mao.
The global influenza pandemic of 1918 to 1920 could have killed 50 million peoplewith a total population of less than 2 billion. The AIDS epidemic has already caused the deaths of around 40 million people And more than half a million people continue to die every year, most of them in sub-Saharan Africa.
The World Health Organization recently estimates this Covid-19 has killed around 7 million people so far – even a multiple of this number –, most in rich countries, including 1.2 million Americans. The pandemic has halted economic growth in many countries and has certainly halted the decline in global poverty (but since it has also disrupted data collection, there is great uncertainty about the numbers).
Depressing catalog
Typically, progress continues after such disasters, and subsequent recovery produces health and welfare outcomes that exceed previous period levels. This historical fact is certainly no consolation to those who have died or lost loved ones. Progress does not erase terror. But it maintains hope for a better life for survivors and future generations.
Unfortunately, this time we cannot be sure that this progress will continue.
In a thousand years, or perhaps sooner, in the 250 years that have passed since the end of the 18th centurye The century may seem like a distant and bygone golden age, a blip in the panorama of history, an exception to the normal state of misery and premature death. Recent events paint a depressing catalog: slow or negative growth, rising global temperatures, the resurgence of infectious diseases, a political life in which the enemies of democracy and the populist far right are becoming ever more present, globalization is stagnating, life expectancy is stagnating and the Multiplying geopolitical tensions, especially between the world’s two largest economies, the United States and China.
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